SOCORRO, New Mexico (STPNS) -- Two closely interrelated and potentially devastating crises will dominate economics, politics and daily life in the 21st century ? global warming and peak oil.

Peak oil is shorthand for the rapid global depletion of fossil fuels, especially oil and natural gas. These twin fuels currently supply some 63 percent of total annual U.S. energy consumption. Global supplies of both oil and natural gas will decline irreversibly in the near future, a decline which could ultimately result in a disastrous collapse of the U.S. economy, unless a massive emergency response is undertaken immediately.



To explain the imminent depletion of global fossil fuels, I will use the example of American oil production, beginning with a single giant oil field in Alaska and the entire state of Texas. Figure 1 shows annual oil production for Alaska (predominantly from the giant field in Prudhoe Bay) and annual production for Texas. Note that all figures are in millions of barrels per day, with Alaskan production on the left axis, Texas on the right.

In both cases, the production curves are similar, bell-shaped curves, rising to a brief peak then declining inexorably and irreversibly. In the case of the single giant Alaskan field, production begins in 1977, reaches a peak in 1988, then declines to 50 percent of peak by 1999.

Eleven years to peak, another 11 years to 50 percent depletion. Note too that production does not reach a prolonged plateau. Decline begins the year after peak, and occurs at a rate of some 5 percent per year.

Texas includes a number of individual fields. Here too production rises to a peak in 1972, then quickly begins to decline. For this collection of fields the decline is slower. It takes 20, not 11 years to reach 50 percent of peak, in 1992. This is a decline rate roughly half that of our single Alaskan field, at 2.5 percent drop per year.

Depletion of oil production for the entire United States is necessarily still more complex, involving many more giant fields than in Texas. I will begin by outlining oil production predominantly in the lower 48 states. This is the gray area under the curve in figure 1. Once again the production profile is a symmetrical bell curve, with no plateau. Peak oil occurs in 1970, then declines to 50 percent of peak by 2003, 33 years later, for a decline rate of 1.5 percent per year.

New fields, including Prudhoe in Alaska, were discovered after the 1970 peak. Hence production for the entire United States shows a bulge beginning in the late 1970s, due both to Prudhoe and to Gulf of Mexico finds (See Figure 2). However, even the discovery of huge new resources does not halt the inevitable decline of production. Decline rates are slowed, to about 1.25 percent per year. Even with immense new finds and the world?s best oil recovery technology, American peak oil was followed immediately by a slow, inexorable and irreversible decline.

Nor was it difficult to predict our national oil peak many years before it occurred. Peak discovery occurred in 1930, followed by an irreversible slowing of discovery rates thereafter. Using knowledge of these discovery rates, an American oil geologist (Hubbert) correctly predicted the 1970 production peak 15 years before it occurred. Such predictions involve rather complex mathematics, so for our purposes, just remember that a scant 40 years separated American peak discovery and peak oil production.

Conclusion 1: Oil fields, once discovered, have a finite, brief and predictable life span.

Conclusion 2: Aggregate oil production in a region as large as America is equally finite, with irreversible depletion setting in some 40 years after peak discovery.

Conclusion 3: This predictable, irreversible decline occurs at a rate of between 1 and 2 percent per year.

Next week, I will apply the American experience to the prediction of world peak oil.